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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.